At the end of the baseball season, the people of the baseball world get together to vote on who should win the Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award (one in each league). I’m not including the postseason in my arguments because the voting happens before it is finished.

Let’s start with the National League MVP. You may be tempted to write down names like Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, or Yasiel Puig, but the player who probably has the best shot at MVP is one you’ve probably never heard of, Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter

Out of 676 players, Carpenter was in the top 10 in almost every category you can think of. He was in the top 10 for games played (tied for 10^th), at-bats (tied for 4^th), runs (1^st), hits( tied for 1^st), doubles (1^st), triples (tied for 7^th), walks (tied for 9^th), batting average (6^th), on-base percentage (7^th), on-base plus slugging (10^th), total bases(3^rd), extra-base hits(3^rd), plate appearances(2^nd), and even sacrifice flies(5^th)!

But the MVP isn’t just about statistics. It’s about helping your team to win, especially in the clutch or the final days of the season. In September, Carpenter batted a torrid .349, led the league in doubles, runs, and hits, and tied for the lead in extra-base hits. In late or close games, Carpenter batted a solid .309.

Carpenter wasn’t immortal, though. He had two main problems- power and stealing. His 11 home runs were an awful total, and his 78 runs batted in were respectable, but nowhere near top class. It was the same with his .481 slugging percentage. From his high-level triple and run totals, it’s clear that he had plenty of speed, but his steal totals indicate that he had nothing else fit for stealing. He only stole 3 bases, and got caught stealing the same number of times.

The only other person I can see making any real challenge is the Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt.

“Goldy” led or tied for the lead in home runs, runs, batted in, slugging percentage, intentional walks, total bases and extra-base hits, while throwing in top 10 totals in runs scored, doubles, and much more. However, he couldn’t really carry his team very far, while Carpenter’s Cardinals won the pennant. This is why I think Matt Carpenter is the NL MVP.

Over in the American League, it’s not so easy. One option would be the Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera. He led the league in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and on-base plus slugging, and was second in many other categories, like home runs, runs batted in and total bases.

Who led Cabrera in those categories? Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. Why? Power. Davis smashed 53 home runs and drove in 138, both figures the most in the AL. Davis also had 96 extra-base hits, and 370 total bases.

We have to put a third name in: the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout. Trout led the league with 109 runs scored and 110 walks, finished second in triples, extra-base hits and on-base percentage, and was right on the tails of Cabrera and Davis in a lot of other stats.

To solve this one, we have to look at the stats from a different angle: late in close games. Davis was absolutely brilliant, leading the league in homers, doubles, RBI, runs, slugging percentage, total bases, and extra-base hits in those situations. Cabrera batted a horrid .203, and his other stats were no better. Although Trout led the league in walks during the times like these, the rest of his stats weren’t much better than Cabrera’s.

But there’s one more issue, how these guys did during the pennant races. After the All-Star Break, Davis did just fine, thank you. He was in the top 5 in homers, RBI, extra-base hits, and total bases. Cabrera and Trout were just as good.

Sadly, Trout has to be tossed. His Angels were a really bad team, so he never felt as much pressure. So does Cabrera, whose close-game record is a disappointment and gets him off this list. That leaves Davis. He helped his Orioles when they needed help the most, and that is why I think he is the AL MVP.

Those are my Most Valuable Player votes. What are yours?